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Project Summary and Statement of Work: Apr, 2006
Progress Report: Jul, 2006
Progress Report: Jan, 2007
Progress Report: Jul, 2007
Progress Report: Jan, 2008
Final Report: Jul, 2008
LMEs
Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands
Ecosystem components
Lower Trophic Level Productivity
Ecosystem Studies
Modeling
Places
Bering Sea
Keywords
ecosystem
modeling
climate change
primary productivity
phytoplankton
algae
coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model
Research Priorities
Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

607 Modeling study on the response of lower trophic level production to climate change

Year funded: 2006
Start date: Jun 01, 2006
End date: May 31, 2008
Budget: $149,547.00
Websites:
project website
student website
Research Highlight: "Dimethylsulfide (DMS): A Natural Link Between Marine Biology and Climate"
The most prominent climate trends resulting from global climate warming in the southeastern Bering Sea, reduced sea ice cover and rising seawater temperature have significant, profound impacts on lower trophic level production and fishery production. These impacts have aroused concerns in recent years and some explanatory hypotheses relating sea ice variability to marine ecosystems were proposed, such as the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH, Hunt et al. 2002). Hypothesis testing has been hindered, however, because observational data describing productivity within sea ice are rare and coupled ice-ocean ecosystem models in the southeastern Bering Sea are lacking.

The project aims to establish a coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model including both pelagic and sea ice habitats. The model will be based on the existing pelagic ecosystem model (Jin et al. 2006b) for the southeastern Bering Sea and the ice-ocean ecosystem model (Jin et al. 2006a) for offshore Barrow. We will conduct sensitivity studies of the impact of physical and biological process variations on primary production, nutrient cycling, phytoplankton species composition, and carbon export to benthos. We will provide recommendations on how, when and which observations should be made to ensure effective improvement in understanding of the Bering Sea ecosystem.

Using historical observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) biophysical mooring site 2, a multi-year (1958-2005) model run is planned to produce a long time series of biogeochemical model results. Seasonal variations and interannual changes in the results will be used to elucidate the lower trophic level productivity response to climate changes.

Figure by Meibing Jin, in June 2006. Preliminary results in multi-year run at M2 site of Southeastern Bering Sea. Modeled surface phytoplankton is compared with daily SeaWiFS Chl a data and imposed with daily SSMI sea ice concentration. Note that there appears to be discrepancies at the peak of bloom in certain year (e.g. 1998 and 1999), however that could be due to gaps of missing SeaWiFS Chl a data in cloudy days which are common in the Bering Sea.
Principal Investigator(s)
Meibing Jin
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
PO Box 757340
Fairbanks AK 99775-7340 USA
Phone: 907-474-2442
Fax: 907-474-1578

Clara Deal
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
PO Box 757340
Fairbanks AK 99775-7340 USA
Phone: 907-474-1875

Jia Wang
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
PO Box 757340
Fairbanks AK 99775-7340 USA
Phone: 907-474-2685